Editorial score
USA-led
3
China-led
2
2
China
3
USA
This lane changes only when a published milestone is definitively achieved. It is the recorded race state, not a forecast.
Gateway architecture
NASA
Scoreboard
Editorial milestones on one rail, market belief on another.
The scoreboard separates what has already happened from what markets currently expect next. Milestones move the editorial score only when achieved. Forecasts remain the live belief layer.
Scoreboard
USA-led
3
China-led
2
Linked live markets
0
Visual archive
Every major surface now gets a dedicated media block so pages read like separate editions, not a single continuous feed.
Source
Photography and concept imagery throughout this pass are sourced from NASA.
Last updated
June 25, 2024
The latest score-changing milestone sets the editorial update date. Forecast markets below remain live and may move before the next scored event lands.
Read the scoring explainerLive market odds
The crowd-belief layer tied to this race timeline
These markets are attached to score-relevant milestones or adjacent race events. They do not change the editorial score directly, but they show where expectations are concentrating.
USA-led signal
0
No linked lead yet
China-led signal
0
No linked lead yet
Open linked markets
0
Markets currently connected to the scoreboard’s milestone graph.
No live forecast markets are attached to the current scoreboard milestones yet.
Milestone changelog
Chang'e 6 returns far-side lunar samples
June 25, 2024
First far-side lunar samples returned to Earth.
USA +0 · China +3
Artemis I completes its lunar test flight
November 16, 2022
Artemis moves from ground integration to lunar flight operations.
USA +2 · China +0
USA +0 · China +2
Perseverance lands on Mars
February 18, 2021
Perseverance establishes the current U.S. Mars sample cache.
USA +2 · China +0
Tianwen-1 launches with the Zhurong rover
July 23, 2020
China begins its first Mars campaign with an end-to-end mission stack.
USA +0 · China +2
Timeline v2
USA left, China right, centered on one race clock
Unknown schedules stay on the rail with dotted connectors instead of pretending the calendar is settled.
2020
The mission established China as a direct Mars competitor and set up the country's first rover campaign on another planet.
MarsLaunch
Scoreboard milestone
USA +0 · China +2 · China begins its first Mars campaign with an end-to-end mission stack.
The mission established China as a direct Mars competitor and set up the country's first rover campaign on another planet.
MarsLaunch
Scoreboard milestone
USA +0 · China +2 · China begins its first Mars campaign with an end-to-end mission stack.
2020
The landing delivered another U.S. surface success on Mars and created the sample inventory that later return architectures now orbit around.
Mars
Scoreboard milestone
USA +2 · China +0 · Perseverance establishes the current U.S. Mars sample cache.
2021
The landing delivered another U.S. surface success on Mars and created the sample inventory that later return architectures now orbit around.
Mars
Scoreboard milestone
USA +2 · China +0 · Perseverance establishes the current U.S. Mars sample cache.
2021
Zhurong shifted the race from launch ambitions to demonstrated surface capability and made the bilateral Mars framing much more concrete.
Mars
Scoreboard milestone
USA +0 · China +2 · China demonstrates sustained Mars surface operations with Zhurong.
Zhurong shifted the race from launch ambitions to demonstrated surface capability and made the bilateral Mars framing much more concrete.
Mars
Scoreboard milestone
USA +0 · China +2 · China demonstrates sustained Mars surface operations with Zhurong.
Artemis I mattered less as a one-off spectacle than as proof that the U.S. lunar return architecture could start moving from integration into flight cadence.
MoonLaunch
Scoreboard milestone
USA +2 · China +0 · Artemis moves from ground integration to lunar flight operations.
2022
Artemis I mattered less as a one-off spectacle than as proof that the U.S. lunar return architecture could start moving from integration into flight cadence.
MoonLaunch
Scoreboard milestone
USA +2 · China +0 · Artemis moves from ground integration to lunar flight operations.
2024
Chang'e 6 extended China's recent lunar run from robotic access to a highly specific operational first with direct strategic signaling value.
Moon
Scoreboard milestone
USA +0 · China +3 · First far-side lunar samples returned to Earth.
Chang'e 6 extended China's recent lunar run from robotic access to a highly specific operational first with direct strategic signaling value.
Moon
Scoreboard milestone
USA +0 · China +3 · First far-side lunar samples returned to Earth.
2025
Artemis II is the hinge between the U.S. lunar architecture as a test program and as a crewed operational sequence.
MoonLaunch
2026
Artemis II is the hinge between the U.S. lunar architecture as a test program and as a crewed operational sequence.
MoonLaunch
2026
Chang'e 7 is one of the clearest robotic markers for whether China's lunar program can compound its recent sample-return momentum into polar operations.
Moon
Chang'e 7 is one of the clearest robotic markers for whether China's lunar program can compound its recent sample-return momentum into polar operations.
Moon
The mission concept still anchors the U.S. Mars science roadmap, but the schedule and implementation path remain fluid enough that it belongs on the timeline with uncertainty made explicit.
Mars
2028
The mission concept still anchors the U.S. Mars science roadmap, but the schedule and implementation path remain fluid enough that it belongs on the timeline with uncertainty made explicit.
Mars
2028
Tianwen-3 is the kind of future mission that belongs on a race timeline even before the calendar hardens, because the strategic intent is already clear.
Mars
Tianwen-3 is the kind of future mission that belongs on a race timeline even before the calendar hardens, because the strategic intent is already clear.
Mars