Editorial score
USA-led
3
China-led
2
2
China
3
USA
This lane changes only when a published milestone is definitively achieved. It is the recorded race state, not a forecast.
Gateway architecture
NASA
Scoreboard
Editorial milestones on one rail, market belief on another.
The scoreboard separates what has already happened from what markets currently expect next. Milestones move the editorial score only when achieved. Forecasts remain the live belief layer.
Scoreboard
USA-led
3
China-led
2
Linked live markets
1
Visual archive
Every major surface now gets a dedicated media block so pages read like separate editions, not a single continuous feed.
Source
Photography and concept imagery throughout this pass are sourced from NASA.
Last updated
April 11, 2026
The latest score-changing milestone sets the editorial update date. Forecast markets below remain live and may move before the next scored event lands.
Read the scoring explainerLive market odds
The crowd-belief layer tied to this race timeline
These markets are attached to score-relevant milestones or adjacent race events. They do not change the editorial score directly, but they show where expectations are concentrating.
USA-led signal
1
54% avg lead
China-led signal
0
No linked lead yet
Open linked markets
1
Markets currently connected to the scoreboard’s milestone graph.
Milestone changelog
USA +2 · China +0
USA +0 · China +2
USA +1 · China +0
Timeline v2
USA left, China right, centered on one race clock
Unknown schedules stay on the rail with dotted connectors instead of pretending the calendar is settled.
Station milestones matter because they demonstrate operational maturity in orbit, even when they are not directly lunar. They still influence how the broader race is perceived.
Stations
Scoreboard milestone
USA +1 · China +0 · Joint station logistics milestone published
2025
Station milestones matter because they demonstrate operational maturity in orbit, even when they are not directly lunar. They still influence how the broader race is perceived.
Stations
Scoreboard milestone
USA +1 · China +0 · Joint station logistics milestone published
2026
Crew systems readiness is one of the most visible leading indicators for a national program, but it still needs editorial discipline before it becomes a score change.
Moon
Scoreboard milestone
USA +0 · China +2 · New heavy-lift test series enters operational validation
Crew systems readiness is one of the most visible leading indicators for a national program, but it still needs editorial discipline before it becomes a score change.
Moon
Scoreboard milestone
USA +0 · China +2 · New heavy-lift test series enters operational validation
2026
This review marked a visible transition from concept validation toward repeatable logistics planning. It matters because logistics readiness compounds future mission options.
MoonLaunch
Scoreboard milestone
USA +2 · China +0 · Reusable cislunar cargo demo completed
2026
This review marked a visible transition from concept validation toward repeatable logistics planning. It matters because logistics readiness compounds future mission options.
MoonLaunch
Scoreboard milestone
USA +2 · China +0 · Reusable cislunar cargo demo completed