Editorial score
USA-led
3
China-led
2
2
China
3
USA
This lane changes only when a published milestone is definitively achieved. It is the recorded race state, not a forecast.
Gateway architecture
NASA
Scoreboard
Editorial milestones on one rail, market belief on another.
The scoreboard separates what has already happened from what markets currently expect next. Milestones move the editorial score only when achieved. Forecasts remain the live belief layer.
Scoreboard
USA-led
3
China-led
2
Linked live markets
0
Visual archive
Every major surface now gets a dedicated media block so pages read like separate editions, not a single continuous feed.
Source
Photography and concept imagery throughout this pass are sourced from NASA.
Last updated
June 25, 2024
The latest score-changing milestone sets the editorial update date. Forecast markets below remain live and may move before the next scored event lands.
Read the scoring explainerLive market odds
The crowd-belief layer tied to this race timeline
These markets are attached to score-relevant milestones or adjacent race events. They do not change the editorial score directly, but they show where expectations are concentrating.
USA-led signal
0
No linked lead yet
China-led signal
0
No linked lead yet
Open linked markets
0
Markets currently connected to the scoreboard’s milestone graph.
No live forecast markets are attached to the current scoreboard milestones yet.
Milestone changelog
Chang'e 6 returns far-side lunar samples
June 25, 2024
First far-side lunar samples returned to Earth.
USA +0 · China +3
Artemis I completes its lunar test flight
November 16, 2022
Artemis moves from ground integration to lunar flight operations.
USA +2 · China +0
USA +0 · China +2
Perseverance lands on Mars
February 18, 2021
Perseverance establishes the current U.S. Mars sample cache.
USA +2 · China +0
Tianwen-1 launches with the Zhurong rover
July 23, 2020
China begins its first Mars campaign with an end-to-end mission stack.
USA +0 · China +2
Timeline v2
USA left, China right, centered on one race clock
Unknown schedules stay on the rail with dotted connectors instead of pretending the calendar is settled.
2020
ChinaJuly 23, 2020
Tianwen-1 launches with the Zhurong rover
China opens the timeline with its first independent Mars mission carrying an orbiter, lander, and rover stack.
ChinaJuly 23, 2020
Tianwen-1 launches with the Zhurong rover
China opens the timeline with its first independent Mars mission carrying an orbiter, lander, and rover stack.
USAJuly 30, 2020
Perseverance launches for Mars
NASA sends its next flagship rover and helicopter technology demo toward Jezero Crater one week later.
2020
USAJuly 30, 2020
Perseverance launches for Mars
NASA sends its next flagship rover and helicopter technology demo toward Jezero Crater one week later.
USAFebruary 18, 2021
Perseverance lands on Mars
NASA reaches Jezero Crater and begins the sample caching era with Ingenuity riding along.
2021
USAFebruary 18, 2021
Perseverance lands on Mars
NASA reaches Jezero Crater and begins the sample caching era with Ingenuity riding along.
2021
ChinaMay 15, 2021
Zhurong lands on Mars
China becomes the second country to operate a rover on Mars with the Tianwen-1 landing sequence.
ChinaMay 15, 2021
Zhurong lands on Mars
China becomes the second country to operate a rover on Mars with the Tianwen-1 landing sequence.
USANovember 16, 2022
Artemis I completes its lunar test flight
NASA's uncrewed SLS and Orion mission closes out the first full-stack Artemis test around the Moon.
2022
USANovember 16, 2022
Artemis I completes its lunar test flight
NASA's uncrewed SLS and Orion mission closes out the first full-stack Artemis test around the Moon.
2024
ChinaJune 25, 2024
Chang'e 6 returns far-side lunar samples
China completes the first-ever sample return from the far side of the Moon.
ChinaJune 25, 2024
Chang'e 6 returns far-side lunar samples
China completes the first-ever sample return from the far side of the Moon.
2025
ChinaMay 29, 2025
Tianwen-2 launches
China extends its deep-space cadence with an asteroid sample-return mission that also tests long-range operations.
ChinaMay 29, 2025
Tianwen-2 launches
China extends its deep-space cadence with an asteroid sample-return mission that also tests long-range operations.
USAApril 2026
Artemis II crewed lunar flyby
NASA's first crewed Artemis mission is the next major U.S. lunar gating event.
2026
USAApril 2026
Artemis II crewed lunar flyby
NASA's first crewed Artemis mission is the next major U.S. lunar gating event.
2026
China2026
Chang'e 7 south-pole mission
China targets a robotic lunar south-pole mission as the next step toward a broader polar architecture.
China2026
Chang'e 7 south-pole mission
China targets a robotic lunar south-pole mission as the next step toward a broader polar architecture.
USATBDUnknown timing
U.S. Mars sample return architecture
NASA's Mars sample return effort remains strategically important, but its actual flight sequence is still unsettled.
2028
USATBDUnknown timing
U.S. Mars sample return architecture
NASA's Mars sample return effort remains strategically important, but its actual flight sequence is still unsettled.
2028
ChinaTBDUnknown timing
Tianwen-3 Mars sample return
China is targeting a Mars sample-return campaign, but the exact operational timeline still carries visible uncertainty.
ChinaTBDUnknown timing
Tianwen-3 Mars sample return
China is targeting a Mars sample-return campaign, but the exact operational timeline still carries visible uncertainty.